The Breitling Watch Source Forums

I was talking to one of my ADs last week and he was telling me that orders in Asia have slowed down significantly over the last few months. This is contrary to what a lot of ADs are saying that they can't get inventory because the Asian market is scooping everything up. My AD said he is now starting to get inventory which was once difficult to get from brands such as IWC and AP and his orders are being filled much faster. I wasn't sure if this was entirely true or not because so many ADs keep feeding me the 'asian market is red hot' bullsh!t as to why they can't discount at the previous levels.

Fast forward to just now...I was reading on TZ that the downturn in the far east has led to smaller Swiss watch suppliers laying off employees; only a small amount of employees, but is it a sign of things to come?

What have you all heard, if anything, about this? Who will AD's now blame as to why they can't discount?

_________________
"I don't own any watches, I just lease them"

Havent heard anything myself, but its really only a matter of time before the "asia bubble" (China bubble?) bursts... and not just in watch sales.

_________________
-RJ

If by Asia you mean china then maybe, but if you mean Japan I don't think so. In fact, it's growing fast

I’m not sure where this news is coming from Serg, but the 2011 figures show China, inclusive of Hong Kong, very strong and up 40% over 2010 to about $6 billion US.

Sales in the US were up 18.4% to about $ 2.2 billion US.

Japan’s increases in gross purchases were lower at 12% and totaled only $0.94 billion US. Surely nothing to sniff at, but nowhere near the big player in the Asian Market.
(Source - Federation of Swiss Watchmakers)

Clearly the majority of watches are going to Asia, more so if you throw in Singapore. It’s hard to imagine something major has happened to Asian buying habits in the last five months even with the forecasted lower growth for 2012.

_________________
SHARKMAN

Could it be because I have not bought anything new lately?

_________________
"It is just a matter of time!"

I've not personally heard any evidence to suggest things are slowing in the Far East just yet. I'm sure it will slow down at some point, but from what I've heard it's still booming at the moment.

Of course I'm only basing this on conversations with AD's here, and also with a friend of mine who often works for long periods of time in China, so I can't claim any of this is gospel.

_________________
Driver8

Site Moderator

I don't know what to make of this. My AD has been in the industry for 40 years so he's not some fly by night dealer and the person who made the post on TZ is a Pretty well respected in-the-know moderator. So the sources are legit but who knows what to believe in this crazy industry.

_________________
"I don't own any watches, I just lease them"

People that I have spoken to suggest that they expect a slowing of growth in 2012, but that's not really surprising as 40% growth is not sustainable - that would be about $2.5 Billion in net new business in China alone, but 'slowing' to 28 - 30% growth is still pretty darn good and not really a cause for concern.

Personally, I welcome any slowing down from China. Walk to any AD in Spore and ask for a discount nowadays, you'll be lucky to get 5%. The mainland chinese buys 10 watches at a time at list price in hard cold cash.

Few months back I was in line for VAT refund in Italy & happy to see only 2 persons in front of me. Unfortunately each of them was Chinese and had stacks of receipts the size of phonebooks. 2 hours processing for 2 persons...

_________________
a few Pams...

My thoughts exactly. I have no idea if there is a slowing in Chinese/Asian watch sales at the moment, but the general economic behavior of the Chinese would seem to suggest their sheltered past has made them unaware of the inevitable busts that follow booms. They should enjoy their good fortune while it lasts, because it won't forever.

couldnt agree with you more RJ. IMO the sooner the better.

Luxury goods sales are down across the boards in Asia, primarily China right now. It even stopped a major IPO from a diamond company I was interested in. Likely a little bit of market saturation.