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There are a few ways to deal with this question, of course. I may ramble to the point of saying something is over-rated, maybe not, but I'll toss out a few thoughts.
In terms of the basic function of a watch, to accurately tell time, I'll go even lower than Shark and say any watch over $500. We all know how accurate a basic quartz is and probably the only reason for a $500 dollar (or so) limit is that if you are in such a technical field or so demanding that you need the most accurate reasonably possible, you can get the Victorinox equivalent of an Aerospace with a "superquartz" movement or a Bulova Precisionist for around $500 or less. On the base level objective of telling time, you can't do better.
Obviously, we are all here because there is more than just telling time. For a well-made, COSC automatic, what's a good limit, $3-$5000? Maybe, but there are higher limits in terms of the level of craftsmanship or the custom or hand-crafted nature of the watch. That's what has me intrigued about Blancpain, the fact that one person puts the entire watch together. It means more, and in the mechanized world, I get that. As an example, I visited the original Jaguar factory in Coventry in 2004, just before it shut down. There, in a nondescript cubicle, was a local guy, family pictures all around, hand-assembling leather-wrapped gear shift knobs that day for R-types. We watched him carefully cut and work the leather and the knob together onto a piece during the factory tour. He was a craftsman, and that still has value. When I drove my old Jag, without a leather shift knob, it didn't matter, I still thought about that man, what he did, what it meant, and wondered where he is now. It enriched the ownership experience.
Frankly, I don't know enough about Pateks because the only ones remotely affordable to me, even on the resale market, don't interest me, and the ones which I like are on the other side of $20,000. Without question, however, they hold value, and this is among largely people who know watches. I have heard about the customer treatment and presume the quality to be tremendous. Joe six-pack doesn't know what a Patek is, and looking at, say, a basic Calatrava, he'd look at the person who paid retail for it and think he or she was an idiot.
Joe six-pack does know what a Rolex is. For many, that is the ultimate watch. I think we would generally agree that there are better watches out there overall, but Rolex is a true "manufacture", moreso than many supposedly more prestigious makers in the watch-lover community, and the movements have proven themselves over time. They just market and produce in numbers exponentially beyond anybody else who builds the same quality level of watch. Are they over-rated in the sense that the public views them as higher in the watch stratosphere than they really are? Yes. But over-rated technically speaking? I suppose that up to the new models you can make the argument based on the quality of the bracelet, but I still think the answer is a clear no. Cost too much? Well, they all do, though I think Rolex is in a unique position here. We are largely educated to think that a certain level of production and economy of scale should lower the price. Here, a Rolex Sub has something like doubled over the past ten years. They just jumped on the gravy train like everybody else.
So much is subjective here. Some watches are simply fashion statements, you like them or you don't, and even with some technical innovations, most may say they are over-rated. Everybody is nuts about ceramic right now, but of course Rado has used ceramic for how long? Hublot has been mentioned above, and I don't know if Montblanc does anything to its watches, but they are clearly selling name and fashion statement first. Toss Chanel in there, too. Their new grey watch is supposed to be great looking, but for $5K when it appears to be a basic ETA in it? I may have an "in" on a big discount on one of those, but do I want it for even $2500?
Now, about ETA, I think they have a similar problem, in a way, as Rolex. They're everywhere, they make a good movement, but again, they're everywhere, which is why it makes sense to me that the Hayeks are saying "enough". I have a cheapie, something with "Cerruti 1884" written on the bezel with an ETA 2524 in it that I paid very little for and will have a devil of a time selling at all. It really comes down to the watch it goes in how or if the watchmaker modifies or regulates the movement. There are some really good watches out there with otherwise-nothing-fancy ETAs in them, but others are modified and regulated to the point that they become something more. Wish I could think of an example, but it's early here and I'm running out of time.
Personally, what turns me off is if I don't see the construction, the craftsmanship in a pricier watch, and the rates aren't that great. I looked at a beautiful, pearl-dial Tag Monaco, but it didn't feel well-built. I already knew it didn't have the higher level ETA movement. I couldn't do it, and unfortunately that's my response to most Tags. They make a few attractive watches, but at times I think they try too hard stylistically. And I still remember how underwhelmed I was with that Monaco.
I still have a mental block with Titanium watches. Look big, feel light still can translate to "cheap" in my old-fashioned mind. I'm working on it. I held a platinum Rolex Day-Date in my hands last week and the heft, the substance of that little 36 mm piece was something else. Nobody but a watch nut would understand it, but should I ever be able to pay that much for a watch, that may be all that matters.
That brings me back to the beginning. Over-rated comes back to you. Should any quartz without a precious metal cost more than $1000? I think no, but I have paid it. I have owned a Panerai and considered it really well-built, but to me the cost of some of the limited editions is silly. A really good watch, but great one? I'm not sold on that. Everybody is nuts about the PO right now, but the new movement has some teething pains and please, Omega, remember that you sold all those SMPs to guys like me because you sold great quality pieces at a reasonable price.
A "manufacture" is only worth the money if it improves upon the more mass-produced alternative in terms of accuracy and reliability. The next 5 years will say a lot about the newest Omega and Breitling movements.
I really, really liked my UN dual time. Build quality was excellent, and I really liked the GMT complication. They modify the ETAs a little bit, and it did run well. But they just get killed on resale. I might get another someday, but I'd have to be nuts to buy it new. Maybe that tells us something.
Anyway, lots of rambling thoughts, and out of time.
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Scott
AP Royal Oak 15400, silver
Zenith Chronomaster El Primero Classic Cars
Vintage gold Corum
Rolex DJ 36 TT, oyster dial, oyster/smooth
Baume & Mercier Riviera 200m, silver dial/aquamarine bezel
Breitling Superocean 57, rose/stainless
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