I recently asked the exact same question and since then I opted for the Olympus E510. It's been voted best entry model DSLR and in my opinion, rightly so!! There is no doubt that Canon and Nikon are top of the range but, at least here in Ireland; their accessories are top of the range prices also. It's my first DSLR and like you I'm not so sure how far my new interest will develop. I decided on this model because of a number of reasons. Price, Value for money, and prices of additional lens/equipment are all very reasonable. Some might argue it's a little small or not as advanced but to counter-act that statement, I would say the image quality is exeptional, it has very user friendly menus and its pretty straight forward to use. I have mine for about a month now and my friend has a Canon 450d, great camera also but the images from both are identical. Also, the E510 has image stability built into the camera body itself, not the lens; which makes the lenses for this model a little more wallet friendly. Also the live view feature is great for landscapes. Works just like a point and shoot. Like i said, i only have mine a month but it is proving to be a wonderful piece of kit. I love it and would recommend it highly as a first DSLR. Whatever you choose to go with, let us know and enjoy what is a wonderful and limitless hobby. Remember, proper lighting and correct settings are prob more important than the kit you are using. Enjoy and post some pics when you get the chance!! 
Hope you find my post of some use
Oh, for watch shots; its worth investing in a tripod and a macro lens
Enjoy,
Ken 
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