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2012 COSC results
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Author:  Roffensian [ Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:40 am ]
Post subject:  2012 COSC results
The COSC results released every year are always of interest for Breitling because it is effectively sales figures. As a private company Breitling doesn't release sales numbers, but because they certify all of their watches the COSC numbers are an accurate report of production volumes and we have to assume that roughly equates to sales figures.

Last year's numbers are in this thread - viewtopic.php?f=1&t=42342 which didn't paint the rosiest picture for Breitling, and the 2012 numbers aren't great either, although you could say the same for some of the other brands on the list (although for many COSC is only applied to some of their watches).

The top 3 - 2012 (2011) % change:

Rolex 798,935(751,285) +6.3%
Omega 526,046 (509,301) +3.3%
Breitling 156,773 (154,456) +1.5%

Rest of the top 10 (rounded to nearest 1,000 because that's all that I can find right now).

Mido 61,000 (49,000) +24%
Tissot 50,000 (7,000) +614%
Panerai 29,000 (34,000) -15%
Chopard 23,000 (29,000) -21%
Enicar 16,000 (17,000) -6%
Titoni 15,000 (21,000) -29%
Invicta 10,000 (0) –%


The first three are perhaps the most meaningful - below that the numbers drop off considerably and decisions on whether or not to certify a particular model factor a lot into the numbers. I doubt that Rolex, Omega or Breitling are happy with the growth rates, but clearly Breitling growth is the worst. I don't know whether these numbers include quartz - I suspect not, but here's something truly scary for Breitling........

2009 was a big year - Breitling launched their in house movement and the watch market collapsed spectacularly with the global financial crisis. Looking at the last year before that happened - 2008, shows that Breitling certified 234,021 mechanical movements and 56,224 quartz movements. For mechanical movements performance for Rolex, Omega and Breitling between 2013 and 2008 shows:

Rolex - up 3.8%
Omega - up 39.2%
Breitling - down 33.0%

Yep, Breitling mechanical sales figures are only 2/3 of the level that they were at before the financial crisis and before they had an in house movement. We know that prices have gone up considerably so some of that may be planned, but Breitling can't be happy!
Author:  Driver8 [ Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
Interesting numbers, Roff. Yes prices have gone up, but then they've gone up for Rolex and Omega too (as per usual :roll: ). Personally I think we can't underestimate the impact of some of Breitling's designs in recent years.

A lot of people (including myself) have been generally very positive with regards to Omega's design direction in recent years, and generally much less so of Breitling's. Ultimately everyone (and by that I mean Joe-public and WIS alike) will only buy a watch if they like what it looks like. Not even the most hardcore WIS will buy a watch for the movement alone if they think the case isn't aesthetically pleasing. I think this is probably why we saw Breitling's Baselworld 2013 models showing a little more evolution instead of revolution.

The other thing that always amuses me every year are Rolex's numbers. Just shows what complete and utter nonsense it is when Rolex AD's claim that a specific Rolex model is "hard to get hold of" or "has a year long waiting list". Yeah, looks that way! :lol:
Author:  Roffensian [ Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
I don't know enough about Omega to know whether the dramatic change since 2008 is the result of more models / a higher percentage of their range being certified but the comparison with Breitling over that period is dramatic - in 2008 there were roughly 3 Omegas certified by the COSC for every 2 mechanical Breitlings, now it's close to 7 Omegas for every 2 Breitlings.
Author:  boogiebot [ Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
thanks for posting this Roff. there is no real surprise to me in regards to seeing Rolex, Omega and Breitling as the top 3. The numbers that fascinate me the most are Tissot and Panerai. Great job on Tissots part to grow their brand. To be honest I am not shocked to see the dip in Panerai. I have been thinking for quite some time that these watches have lost that "it" factor a while ago.
Author:  sharkman [ Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
These numbers are telling for a simpleton like me. Omega went upscale with new materials, but kept their DNA for each model. Breitling did just the opposite as we have lamented many times on this forum. I wondered if models like the new A2, SW GMT and SW (no Buck Rogers fonts, intact rider tabs, no rubber bezels or inserts, etc...) represented a change back to what sold and away from the silliness of the last 4 years. Every AD I have talked to bemoans the SO2, SO44 and the loss of the real style SO, et... I've always believed that the vast majority of Breitlings sold are bought primarily on styling cues with a secondary nod to what is under the hood. In short, material deviations from the "Breitling Style," regardless of manufacture movements, means plummeting sales.
Author:  Roffensian [ Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
boogiebot wrote:
thanks for posting this Roff. there is no real surprise to me in regards to seeing Rolex, Omega and Breitling as the top 3. The numbers that fascinate me the most are Tissot and Panerai. Great job on Tissots part to grow their brand. To be honest I am not shocked to see the dip in Panerai. I have been thinking for quite some time that these watches have lost that "it" factor a while ago.


For those brands these numbers are relatively meaningless because they only represent a small subset of the range that are COSC certified - it's only where most / all of the watches are certified that you can extrapolate the trends.
Author:  RJRJRJ [ Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
Man, I miss the days when I liked every Breitling model in the range. I used to get excited figuring out which one I was gonna go for next. Now, I look at the lineup and try to force myself to like something. I hope these poor numbers continue for them so that they can finally see the light.
Author:  dams-r-us [ Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
RJRJRJ wrote:
I hope these poor numbers continue for them so that they can finally see the light.


As long as their sales don't tank so badly that they go the same way as BlackBerry, which is currently in the process of selling itself. :(

Also, as is mentioned sometimes in the wake of the release of COSC figures, for Rolex, OMEGA and most others, the numbers just mean movements certified, which doesn't necessarily equal watches sold. Some commentators suggest that these stats may be misleading that way. On the other hand, several consecutive years of increased growth has to indicate sales growth, not just movement production. It would make no sense to build up a massive stockpile of costly movements - unsold inventory cripples the producer, a la Blackberry.


dams-r-us
Author:  gbuergisser [ Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
So in 2012 about 1.5 million movements have been COSC certified. I have read that the certification of one movement takes 15 days. This sounds quite laborious. Do you know if the certification process is completely automated? And how many movements would be the capacity limit of the COSC?
Author:  Roffensian [ Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
gbuergisser wrote:
So in 2012 about 1.5 million movements have been COSC certified. I have read that the certification of one movement takes 15 days. This sounds quite laborious. Do you know if the certification process is completely automated? And how many movements would be the capacity limit of the COSC?



It is an automated process - their website explains it pretty well - www.cosc.ch. No idea what capacity would be but can't be difficult to increase - it's only testing so don't need much space.
Author:  coltstrong [ Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
It seems like Rolex and Omega has added models over that time and kept their old lines relatively intact, heck I think you can still buy an airking and Bond Seamaster. But Breitling has to drop, rename, and reposition their watches which has to hurt sales and resales.

I'd like to see them keep the Chrono 44/Chrono B01, GMT, but add/rename (back to) the Classic and Evo to the line to have a full compliment like range rover now has. Bring back the Crosswinds and Headwinds (maybe they still have them but just renamed them?!).
Author:  bozman52 [ Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
I haven't been checking the forum as religiously as I once did, so I'm a little late to the party on this one. I just wanted to thank Roff for posting this and doing a high level data analysis on this year vs last years numbers. Interesting stuff.
Author:  Tim S [ Fri Nov 08, 2013 7:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
Based on the negative trends outlined above, does anyone think that Breitling may end up being bought in the near term? I know the company is private (so no one will really know) but the numbers aren't good. It seems as though the design experimentation's of the past few year's might be a thing of the past but is it too little too late? I hope not as I would really like to see Breitling turn things around.
Author:  Roffensian [ Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 COSC results
I'm not sure about short term, I think that Breitling must be having some financing challenges with reduced revenues and a big capital investment to pay for with the in house stuff and production capacity. No idea what cash reserves were / are or how friendly their financing is, but if this continues then I am sure that they will become a target.
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